2023 Draft Population Projections for Tasmania and Local Government Areas - Consultation Closed

​About the projections​

Since 2009, Treasury has released official State and regional population projections for Tasmania every five years, following the release of data from each ABS Census of Population and Housing. Work on these latest projections began earlier in 2023 and included consultation with frequent users of the Treasury projections.

The 2023 draft projections are available below. The draft projections replace our previous 2022 “interim" projections and are the most suitable projections for use until the publication of our final projections, which are scheduled for release in late April 2024.

The draft projections provide an indication of the size and composition of the population of Tasmania and its 29 local government areas (LGAs) for a 30-year period, from 2022-23 to 2051-52. The projections illustrate what the State's population would look like if particular demographic trends and patterns hold true into the future.

It is important to note that projections differ from forecasts. It is not possible in a long-term projections exercise, for example, to predict economic cycles; the demographic impact of government policies or targets; or the development of new major industries. While important for planning, the projections should not be used as a standalone decision-making tool.

Treasury has upgraded the model used to produce the projections, commissioning demographer Dr Tom Wilson to develop a bespoke projections model for Tasmania to better address the challenges of modelling our smaller regional populations.

Please note that there will be further releases of ABS population and other data between the release of this consultation paper and finalisation of the projections in April 2024. As a result, there will be some small changes made to the projections from the use of new data, in addition to any adjustments made in response to feedback from stakeholders.

Closing date for consultation

Consultation closed on 31 January 2024.

Consultation paper​

While consultation has closed, the consultation paper is still available for user reference. ​

The consultation paper provides the output of this new model and the outcome of our analysis to date. 

Consultation Paper - 2023 Draft Population Projections (TasPop2023).pdf

Supporting spreadsheets​

In addition to the consultation paper, below are a suite of spreadsheets containing detailed draft projection data. The projections include a high, medium and low series, with the medium series considered the most likely outcome if current trends and expected future developments continue. Please refer to the consultation paper for a full explanation of the three series.​

Main output file - contains historical population and projections and components of change for the State and each LGA, including by age group, and for each series (high, medium, low);

Local government areas detailed output - detailed demographic data for each LGA, including projections by age group as well as projected births, deaths and migration for each series;

State population pyramid - an interactive and animated chart that allows you to compare the distribution of the Tasmanian population in different age groups across time for each series; and

Summary profiles - a concise two-page workbook containing medium series projection tables and charts for Tasmania and each LGA.​

Medium series supporting spreadsheets

Medium series draft projections - Main output file.xlsx

Medium series draft projections - Local government areas detailed output.xlsx

Medium series draft projections - State population pyramid.xlsm

High series supporting spreadsheets

High series draft projections - Main output file.xlsx

High series draft projections - Local government areas detailed output.xlsx

High series draft projections - State population pyramid.xlsm

​Low series supporting spreadsheets

Low series draft projections - Main output file.xlsx

Low series draft projections - Local government areas detailed output.xlsx

Low series draft projections - State population pyramid.xlsm

Summary profiles

​Medium series draft projections - Summary profiles.zip

Back Home