2019 Population projections for Tasmania and its Local Government Areas

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​The Department of Treasury and Finance has prepared population projections for Tasmania covering a period of 50 years (from 2017 to 2067) and for Tasmania's Local Government Areas for 25 years (2017 to 2042). These replace the population projections that Treasury prepared in 2014.

The Summary Paper provides a brief background to the development of the population projections, sets out the assumptions used regarding fertility, mortality and migration and briefly discusses the projection results.

The Medium Series Charts illustrate the projected outcomes for Tasmania and each of its LGAs, compared with the 2014 projections.

The Projection Results spreadsheet provides detailed population projections by single year of age and gender.

These projections do not include the demographic impacts of any Government policies, such as a population strategy, any major land releases or the development of major new industries. These projections are therefore not forecasts and should not be used as a standalone decision making tool.


 

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 What are these projections? ▼

The projections were released in April 2019 a​nd are the most up to date set of projections produced by the Tasmanian Department of Treasury and Finance.

The projections present potential scenarios for the composition and size of the Tasmanian population under certain assumptions regarding natural population increase and migration. No allowance has been made for the impact of any future policies that may influence future population trends.​​​​

 Are these population forecasts? ▼

​No - they are not forecasts. These are projections that provide an indication of possible population outcomes, with different assumptions based on recent population trends.

Treasury advises that the population projections should not be used as a stand‑alone decision making tool. Rather, they provide a range of plausible outcomes that Government agencies and a range of private and public businesses might take into account in their future planning.​

These projections provide a baseline against which the impact of actions and policies can be considered and potentially measured against.

 Why are there three series, and which should be used? ▼

Consistent with previous population projections, three series of projections have been provided, indicating high, medium and low growth scenarios. The medium series is predominantly based on current trends in fertility, life expectancy at birth and migration.

The high and low series provide an indication as to how populations might change based on stronger and weaker underlying assumptions. However, it should be noted that the high and low series do not necessarily provide higher and lower limits of likely population estimates for the decades ahead.

For most policy and planning purposes, Treasury recommends that the medium series be used.​

 What is the smallest area projections are produced for? ▼

The Local Government Area level is the smallest area for which projections are produced. Given the small population size of some of Tasmania's LGAs, the data samples become too small to produce meaningful projections of smaller areas.

 How do the projections vary from the previous methodology? ▼

The 2019 population projections have been prepared using an independently built projection model, called the Regional Population Projection Program (RePPP), designed by Dr Tom Wilson of Charles Darwin University, a leading Australian demographic modeller.

The Treasury model developed in 2008 was used to produce the 2008 and 2014 projections, and was considered best practice at the time. However, the available data and population projection methodologies have evolved.

The RePPP creates projections using the cohort component method, similar to the previous model, but differs from the previous Treasury projection model in that it allows for the age and sex of migrants to be included in the projections. The model then requires migration rates to be inserted for each population cohort based on the age and sex of those who have arrived and departed from the State over recent years.

The inclusion of this extra level of migration detail in the 2019 projections results in greater population ageing than was indicated in the 2014 projections, as it more realistically captures the actual Tasmanian trend of losing younger individuals and gaining older migrants.

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 Does Treasury produce household projections? ▼

No, household projections have not been produced as part of the 2019 population projections. Due to the small size of some LGAs, it would be difficult to produce meaningful projections at the household level.

 Who can I contact for more information? ▼

Please ad​​dress any queries regarding the population projections to: economic.analysis@treasury.tas.gov.au.

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